National League Favorites 2019
2021 projected standings for major league baseball teams. Support FanGraphs. FanGraphs Membership. 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017.
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- The statistic ranks all franchises of the National Football League according to revenue in 2019. The Dallas Cowboys generated 980 million U.S. Dollars in revenue in that year, the most of all NFL.
Welcome to our two-part guide to the 2019 MLB season through the lens of our MLB prediction model. In each division, we’ll outline the key teams in the division race, discuss the incoming players who will make the biggest difference and classify the tanking teams you should ignore on principle. Here is our preview of the American League (click here for the National League):
| Avg. Simulated Season | Chance to… | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo Rating | Wins | Losses | Run Diff. | Make Playoffs | Win Division | Win World Series |
| Yankees | 1569 | 97 | 65 | +147 | 82% | 47% | 13% |
| Red Sox | 1562 | 95 | 67 | +131 | 76 | 39 | 9 |
| Rays | 1525 | 86 | 76 | +46 | 42 | 12 | 3 |
| Blue Jays | 1482 | 75 | 87 | -55 | 9 | 2 | <1 |
| Orioles | 1421 | 60 | 102 | -198 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
The HoustonAstros remain the model franchise in MLB entering 2019. They are on the cutting edge of player development and have built a club that won the 2017 World Series, won 103 games a year ago and project to win 98 games this season, according to our model, all while maintaining a farm system that has ranked fifth or better by Baseball America in three of the past four years. The Astros might be the best team in the game, and they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon: They’ve locked up Alex Bregman (7.2 WAR) to a long-term deal, they feature a young core of Carlos Correa (1.7) and Jose Altuve (5.0) in their primes, and they have more riches on the way in outfield prospect Kyle “Ted” Tucker. They’ve become masters of acquiring pitchers, often high-spin-rate arms, and getting more out of them than other teams, including Justin Verlander (6.5), Gerrit Cole (5.5) and Ryan Pressly (2.0). The Los Angeles Angels and Mike Trout (10.0) essentially agreed to a lifetime contract earlier in March. While Trout has never won a playoff game, the second act of the Trout era in Anaheim is looking more promising. The Angels’ farm system is improving, and Shohei Ohtani (3.9) gives the club a second legit superstar if and when he can pitch and hit again. There’s work to do, but the Angels might have the most enviable pair of players in the game. You may not have heard of Oakland A’s third baseman Matt Chapman (7.3), but the two-way star was sixth in WAR for all batters last season. The A’s had the fourth-most efficient offense in part because no team hit fewer ground balls. Getting the ball off the ground is the A’s latest hidden edge. The big question for the A’s is what kind of production they’ll get from a rotation that lacks dominant, ace-type arms. In their bullpen, they have one of the most impressive arms in baseball in Blake Treinen (3.9).
The difference-makers: Astros pitching prospect Josh James wasn’t even on prospect radars last spring, but by the end of the season, he had taken his 100-mph fastball and wipeout changeup to the majors. James is one reason that the Astros were probably comfortable in allowing starters Dallas Kuechel and Charlie Morton to depart. James will begin the year in the bullpen, but he could become an important part of the rotation. The Mariners might hasten their rebuild with the offseason signing of Yusei Kikuchi, one of the best pitchers in Japan over the past several seasons. Kikuchi has a swing-and-miss slider, and his fastball sits at 93 mph but can reach 98. The A’s acquired Jurickson Profar (2.5 WAR) from Texas, one of a number of lower-profile but potentially useful additions. Profar was once the top prospect in the game, but he has dealt with a number of injuries. Still, he’s been effective when on the field, posting a .793 on-base plus slugging last season.
2019 National League Batting Leaders
Gone tanking: The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto restocked a weak farm system with the trades of Paxton, Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz this offseason, but the Mariners have a long way to go to compete with the Astros. While the Rangers are exploring some innovative practices with Driveline Baseball, they have a team that will be challenged at the major league level and a system that lacks a prospect that projects to be a future difference-maker. It’s a long road from the bottom of the AL West to the top.