Martingale System
The Martingale System The Martingale system is one of the oldest and most well-known betting systems in existence. It is also one of the easiest to learn, as there are no complicated calculations involved. The required math is very basic, and there are just a couple of simple steps to follow. The Martingale system of staking is a betting strategy which requires you to double your bet on a losing wager. It’s one of the simplest and most famous staking plans in the world of gambling. Also, it requires even odds bets – which seems perfect for playing online blackjack.
Estimated Read Time: 3 minutesSee All Guides
Whether it’s a lengthy stretch of victories, a dismal run of consecutive outright losses, or regular bad luck at your sportsbook, everyone eventually finds themselves on a streak. And like all good things, every streak is bound to end.
While lengthy streaks can leave loyal fans brimming with confidence or reeling in despair, many sports bettors see an opportunity to profit off the inevitable end to the streak.
We’ll introduce you to the martingale system, which is widely-used by strategic sharp bettors looking to find an edge over bookmakers.
Martingale System Forex
What Is the Martingale System?
Using the martingale system, a sports bettor places a bet on a specific team and an expected outcome. If the first bet proves to be a loser, the sports bettor increases their stake on each subsequent bet on the same outcome. This continues until a win is achieved.
With each subsequent losing bet, bettors wager double the stake laid on their previous losing bet – and so on – until the desired expected outcome pays out and turns a profit.
The Math Behind the Martingale System
Let’s keep things simple. Say that you’re starting with a bankroll of $11,000 which is subsequently divided into 100 units of $110 each.
We’ll apply the martingale system to an NFL bet to cover the spread, with a starting wager of one unit ($110) on the Cleveland Browns. As is standard with NFL spread bets, let’s say that the Brown’s odds against the spread are -110.
In this case, your initial Week 1 wager of $110 (which includes the vig typically paid to the sportsbook) has potential winnings of $100.
In the event your Week 1 bet is a loser, the martingale system dictates that you’ll need to bet again on Cleveland in Week 2. You’ll need to increase the to provide a return equal to both the amount you wagered in Week 1 (plus the amount you would have won if your Week 1 bet had been a winner).
Breakdown of Martingale System Applied to a Bet on the Cleveland Browns
If your week 1 bet is a loser, your week 2 wager is determined by the size your week 1 wager, plus what you could have potentially won in week 1.
Further, you’ve got to account for the vig, which in this case is $21. As such, your wager would be calculated by adding $110 + $100 + $21, giving you a total of $231.
If your week 2 bet is a loser, the size of your week 3 wager is determined by your week 2 wager plus the what you could have potentially won in week 2. Additionally, you’ve got to account for the vig. As such, your bet would be calculated as follows: $231 + $210 + $43.10 = $474.10. During the NFL season all these betting lines are available to wager on in real time, from week 1 to the Super Bowl.
You can continue to use the martingale method until you eventually produce a winner.
Limitations of the Martingale System
Faithfully adhering to the martingale system will inevitably produce a winning bet. However, the method does have some limitations.
There’s a real possibility of your bankroll running dry before the end of a streak that produces a winning bet. If you managed to pick a winner in Week 3, you’d have wagered a total of $805.
If the streak had dragged on beyond Week 3, you’d quickly find that it would get harder and harder to diversify your betting strategy. Your ability to make wagers on other events would be severely restricted, and eventually, your bankroll would be depleted all together if the streak dragged into Week 7.
While the NFL’s short schedule may make this a reasonable risk when using the martingale system to bet against the spread, lengthy streaks are much more common in sports with long schedules including the NHL, NBA, and MLB.
Since the start of the 2008-2009 season, there have been over 60 outright winning streaks that lasted 10 or more games in the NBA. In addition, the Atlanta Hawks’ epic ATS win streak in January 2015 lasted 13 games and would have required you to bump up your wager on the streak-ending 14th contest to a prohibitive $1,685,987.23 – just to win your desired profit of $100.
Boost Your Bankroll by Doing Your Homework
While the martingale system may offer an irresistible allure for sports bettors looking to cash in on the end of a streak, it’s clearly a strategy that’s limited only to players with big bankrolls and money to burn.
For the rest of us, the fun and profit in sports betting results from adhering to strong fundamental bankroll management, as well as doing the proper research so you can find value and gain an edge at the sportsbooks.
If there’s a game where people bet something of value on the outcome, there are one or more betting systems in use. Gamblers love casino betting systems. The most popular betting systems are used in many different types of gambling games.
The two most popular betting systems are the Martingale and Paroli systems. Both systems have been used for several hundred years.
In this post, I will be discussing the differences between the Martingale and Paroli systems and which one is better.
Martingale vs. Paroli: History
The French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal (lived from 1623 to 1662) is the father of many of the theories and principles associated with gambling.
It’s possible that Pascal invented both the Martingale and Paroli betting systems. Historians actually agree that he and Pierre de Fermat developed the science of probabilities while discussing gambling problems via letters.
That early correspondence between Pascal and Fermat may have been the root of modern game theory.
Modern game theory predicts the possible outcomes of simple situations. The 20th century mathematician John von Neumann is credited with proposing the first formal rules for modern game theory.
Betting systems like the Martingale and Paroli don’t resemble the classic prisoner dilemma, but they came from someone’s thought experiments about how to improve chances of winning in a gambling game. That is the essence of game theory, and it’s a fitting way to describe betting systems.
Why Do People Use Betting Systems?
This is one of those rhetorical questions inexperienced gamblers ask their elders. There are as many reasons to use betting systems as there are people making bets.
The most obvious reason for using a system is your hope of beating the game’s unfavorable odds. In casino games the house always has an edge. The payout odds are not as good as the probabilities.
In other words, you’ll lose money by making only even-money bets because the house wins slightly more often than the player over time. It depends on the game, but gambling writers frequently use roulette to illustrate how even money bets eventually cost you money.
If you only bet on the outside bets (even or odd, red or black, top half or bottom half of the wheel), the math says you’ll win about 48.6% of the time in European roulette. Just to break even, you need to win 50% of the time.
A betting system cannot change the payout odds. The appeal of a betting system is that it seeks to improve the return to player by strategically raising bets. Another way to look at a betting system is that it tries to reduce losses.
In theory, if you must lose, it’s better to lose the least amount of money possible, the minimum bet allowed in the game.
By the same token, in theory, if you’re going to win, it’s better to win the largest amount of money possible which is the maximum bet allowed.
The idea behind any betting system is that your wins should outweigh your losses over time.
The Flaw Is That They Don’t Change the Rules of the Game
Whether you use the Martingale system or the Paroli system, you’re still at a probabilistic disadvantage in the games casinos offer. The following games have some of the best odds in all casino games and they all favor the house:
Although blackjack requires skill, it’s still a game of chance. That means you can’t predict what the next card the dealer draws will be. If you could make such predictions, the house wouldn’t let you play blackjack, and you’d win more money by betting on what the next card will be anyway.
The randomness of any gambling game weakens the potential value of even the best betting system.
How the Martingale System Works and Where It Fails
The Martingale system is the classic betting strategy, the one most players have heard about. It’s a simple strategy and therefore, easy to learn.
The Martingale system is also game-independent. You can use it in every gambling scenario you can think of, as long as you can make a series of wagers.
The system relies on betting units. A unit is the smallest allowable bet, the table minimum in games like blackjack and roulette.
Martingale System Blackjack
In the Martingale system, the player begins by wagering a single unit and continues betting only single units as long as he wins.
When the player loses the bet, he doubles the size of his bet on the next round. And where does the Martingale system fail?
You’ll either run out of money as you continue to raise your bets (if you fall into a losing streak), or you’ll run into the table limit, which forces you to stop increasing your bets.
I’ve heard of players trying to use a modified Martingale system where they keep betting the table maximum until they win back the money they’ve lost. I’ve never seen anyone use this system successfully, but I suppose it’s happened somewhere.
How the Paroli System Works and Where It Fails
The Paroli system is often called the Reverse Martingale system. Instead of raising bets after you lose, the Paroli system tells you to raise your bets after you win. The system assumes you can make more money by taking advantage of a winning streak.
Martingale System Gambling
Even so, the Paroli betting system calls for you to return to a single unit wager after the third consecutive win.
The Paroli system fails because it doesn’t take full advantage of a long winning streak. Assuming you win 40 wagers in a row, you’ll win, raise, raise, and start over 13 times.
What if you had continually raised your bets during that streak until you hit the table limit? The Paroli system is not a good choice for people who are prone to second-guess themselves.
The Paroli System Has One Clear Advantage Over the Martingale System
Since you don’t know how long your winning and losing streaks will be, or even if you’ll have any streaks, the Paroli system is a more conservative betting strategy.
In other words, your money should last longer if you use the Paroli system than if you use the Martingale system.
I don’t see it as an advantage that the Paroli system never leads to the table limit like the Martingale system. While you don’t have to worry about what to do when you can no longer raise your bet, the Martingale system has the theoretical advantage of paying really well on bets at or near the limit, if you win.
Shorter Streaks Are More Likely in Most Gambling Games
While it’s possible the roulette wheel could land on red 40 times in a row, or you could draw 10 blackjacks in a row, your winning and losing streaks will usually be much shorter.
Losing streaks in the Paroli system are much less expensive than losing streaks in the Martingale system.
On the other hand, winning streaks don’t exist in the Martingale system. If you use the Martingale system in a 40-win streak, you’ll only win on minimum bets. Like with the Paroli system, this is probably not a good strategy for people who tend to second-guess themselves when gambling with real money.
The high probability that any winning or losing streaks will be short-lived means that either betting system will fail to return its full potential value to the player.
Conclusion
About the only betting system I ever use is to be consistent with my wagers. I don’t count cards in blackjack, so I’m not looking for signs I should raise my bet.
I usually play outside bets in roulette. Call me a boring gambler, but I hate single-number bets because I don’t enjoy losing most of my wagers.
If you enjoy risk and the potential rewards, and you want to use a betting system, the Martingale is probably a better system for you. It entails a lot of risk and even if you only win one big wager before going back to the minimum, it could result in a nice payoff.
Martingale System Craps
If you want to preserve your stake for as much as possible then you’ll probably feel better using the Paroli system.
Neither system guarantees you’ll leave the game with more money than you started, but it may be fun to test them both a few times and see which one you like the best.